📈 Line Movement & Market Analysis FIXED

Trading-style visualization with accurate math and dual-axis volume bars

Total Points Movement

Market: 44.5 (Live) Edge: +9.5 Over
Market Line
Model (54 total)
Moving Avg
Volume %
Edge Calculation:
• Model: 54 total points (49ers 30, Rams 24)
• Market: 44.5 points
• Edge: 54 - 44.5 = +9.5 Over

What this means: Market expects lower scoring than our model predicts. Betting OVER gives you 9.5 points of value (like buying a stock trading below intrinsic value).

Spread Movement

Market: 49ers -8.5 (Live) Edge: +2.5 49ers
Market Spread
Model (49ers -6)
Betting Volume
Edge Calculation:
• Model: 49ers -6 (proj 49ers 30, Rams 24)
• Market: 49ers -8.5 (Rams +8.5)
• Edge: Market gives Rams 8.5 points, but model shows only 6-point margin = 2.5 points value on 49ers

What this means: Market is overvaluing Rams. Model shows 49ers should win by 6, but you're getting them at -8.5. Taking 49ers at a worse line still has value because market overcorrected (like buying quality stock on a dip).

⚡ What Was Fixed

❌ Original Issues

  • Spread signage wrong: Said "Rams +8.5" but chart showed negative (favorites)
  • Math didn't work: "+57.5 edge" with no valid calculation
  • Projection mismatch: Said 49ers -20 but showed 30-24 (6 points)
  • Missing volume on total chart: Tooltip referenced volume but no bars
  • No dual y-axis on totals: Volume had nowhere to plot

✅ Fixed Version

  • Correct spread notation: 49ers -8.5 (matches negative chart values)
  • Valid edge calc: Market -8.5 vs Model -6 = 2.5 point edge ✓
  • Consistent projection: 49ers 30-24 = 6 point margin = -6 spread ✓
  • Volume bars on BOTH charts: Green bars with right y-axis
  • Dual y-axis setup: Left = points, Right = volume %
  • Total edge correct: Model 54 - Market 44.5 = +9.5 Over ✓